Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.058074 2.180777 2.309888 2.456364 2.618549 2.793340 2.996923
2025-09-28 1.847742 2.012754 2.194547 2.411397 2.665331 2.956233 3.319107
2025-10-05 1.758332 1.953415 2.175603 2.450760 2.787265 3.192220 3.727527
2025-10-12 1.692302 1.909711 2.164046 2.488917 2.901149 3.419174 4.141263
2025-10-19 1.636132 1.870612 2.151185 2.519260 3.001781 3.632477 4.556783
2025-10-26 1.570168 1.813756 2.110500 2.508270 3.043925 3.767787 4.876184
2025-11-02 1.511952 1.762161 2.071780 2.494817 3.078484 3.891858 5.190377
2025-11-09 1.452275 1.705045 2.021905 2.461807 3.081378 3.968100 5.437326
2025-11-16 1.397815 1.651664 1.973520 2.426757 3.077087 4.030889 5.667581
2025-11-23 1.362587 1.621213 1.953195 2.428034 3.123574 4.172307 6.046577
2025-11-30 1.337562 1.602667 1.947285 2.448200 3.198002 4.362522 6.539121
2025-12-07 1.294742 1.558716 1.904801 2.413408 3.186207 4.411695 6.777613
2025-12-14 1.251752 1.513695 1.859896 2.374035 3.166578 4.449192 7.006760
2025-12-21 1.210348 1.469445 1.814361 2.331439 3.139012 4.470628 7.207857
2025-12-28 1.198305 1.464373 1.822814 2.368694 3.240321 4.724558 7.944238
2026-01-04 1.186667 1.459201 1.830561 2.404788 3.341796 4.989704 8.770580
2026-01-11 1.173426 1.451177 1.833641 2.433476 3.432552 5.245224 9.644779
2026-01-18 1.149348 1.427140 1.812521 2.423087 3.455246 5.371461 10.226255
2026-01-25 1.125946 1.403295 1.790725 2.410366 3.472619 5.488512 10.816276
2026-02-01 1.098533 1.372976 1.758349 2.379145 3.454848 5.531402 11.207506
2026-02-08 1.071915 1.343089 1.725666 2.345978 3.431397 5.559923 11.565783
2026-02-15 1.055964 1.328013 1.714487 2.347187 3.470558 5.726587 12.414659
2026-02-22 1.045521 1.320511 1.714305 2.366271 3.543939 5.977547 13.650296